Odds of Flopping a Set Are 11.8% When Holding a Pocket Pair



Q: What Are The Odds of Flopping a Set in Texas Hold'em?

A: What are the odds of flopping a set in Texas Hold'em poker?

One of the greatest feelings when playing any variant of Texas Hold'em poker is when you flop a set. Flopping a set, in case you were unaware, occurs when you are holding a pocket pair and make three of a kind on the flop.

For instance, let's say that you are holding pocket 3s. You are in the big blind.

Action folds around to the button, who puts in a standard raise. The small blind folds and you elect to call with your pocket 3s.

The flop comes 3s-Ks-2h. You now have three 3s, which means that you flopped a set. This is obviously a very strong hand and you will almost certainly be ahead after the flop.

The question is - what are the odds of flopping a set?

When you hold a pocket pair, the odds of flopping a set are 7.5-1, or roughly 12%.

It's important to know the odds, as many people will try to "set mine" when playing Texas Hold'em. This means that you are calling pre-flop bets with your pocket pair, hoping to hit a set on the flop. The idea is that you will stand to win a large pot if you flop a set, while you will be able to quickly toss your hand if you don't hit a set.

The problem that people run into is that they don't properly account for the odds. For instance, let's say that you are playing in a NLHE cash game. Your opponent has just $75 in front of him, while you have $400.

Let's say that your opponent puts in a large pre-flop raise for $25. The blinds are $1/$2 and you are sitting in the big blind with pocket 3s. Everyone else at the table has folded.

In this case, you are NOT getting the proper odds to set mine and should fold your hand.


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