Roughly 1% Chance of Two Players Flopping a Set

Q: What Are The Odds Of a Set-Over-Set In Hold'em?

A: It's the setup in Hold'em that every player dreams of.

You are holding a pair in your hand and flop a set, which is a very strong hand in Hold'em.

Your opponent, who is also holding a pair as their hole cards, also flops a set. If your opponent has a lower set, you will also certainly take the maximum number of chips from them in the hand, as sets are nearly impossible to get away from.

Of course, the flip side of this is hitting a set yourself, only to find that your opponent has flopped a better set. This is an absolute gut punch and happens to every poker player.

The question is: what are the odds of a set-over-set situation occurring at a Hold'em table?

The odds of flopping a set when holding a pocket pair is approximately 12%.

The odds of flopping a set when holding a pocket pair AND somebody else flopping a set while holding a pocket pair is roughly 1% (the actual number is a bit over 1%).

So if you feel are though you took a really bad beat after losing in a set-over-set situation, you most certainly did, as you had a 1% chance of losing in that fashion when you were dealt your pocket pair.

Note: the 1% likelihood of a set-over-set situation only applies when you are dealt a pocket pair.


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